Free tool
Grid and martingale risk calculator
How likely is a grid or martingale Expert Advisor to lose half of your account within a year? Set the lot, the grid step, the multiplier and the volatility. The simulator runs 1,500 price paths in your browser and shows the probability of ruin, the drawdown and the spread of final balances.
How to read it
Probability of ruin is the share of simulated paths whose equity touches the loss limit you set, at any moment of the horizon. Equity drawdown counts open baskets at their worst point, which is the number that decides whether an account survives.
No edge is assumed. Price is modelled as an unbiased random walk, one step per hour, with the daily volatility you choose. So the median result stays near the starting balance: a grid does not create profit by itself. It turns many small wins into rare large losses, and the multiplier decides how large.
What moves the result: the lot multiplier (every level above 1.0 grows the last lot exponentially), the number of levels, the grid step against the daily volatility, and the lot against the balance. Try the three presets: the same grid goes from a few percent of ruin to near certainty only by changing the multiplier.
What to ask any seller: equity drawdown per mode, tested on real ticks, over several years, with a public live signal. Eudora publishes exactly that for every engine: see the facts table and the guide on grid and martingale risk.
Generic model, buy-side grid with a basket take profit on the average price, 10 USD per pip per lot, no spread, swap or stop-out rules. It describes the family of strategies, not any specific product.